CASPIAN JOURNAL

MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES

Experience with using fuzzy sets in forecasting of currency exchange rate

Read Starusev Andrey V. Experience with using fuzzy sets in forecasting of currency exchange rate // Caspian journal : management and high technologies.  2014.  4.  pp. 197-204.

Starusev Andrey V. - Ph.D. (Engineering), the research test center, Znamensk, Astrakhan region, 416540, Russian Federation, army part 29139, starusev-av@yandex.ru

There is a method proposed to optimize test processes developed automated systems (ASVFP) for various functional purposes and solve organizational issues relevant tests. Considered the risks of the customer and developers ASVFP with the positions of system analysis. To substantiate the optimum compromise solution on the parameters of the system for the customer and the developer was found an association between the risk values for them, a compromise optimization criterion. Also examined the risks associated with the use of operational characteristics that determine the probability that the application of this criterion would lead to a solution for wish the characteristics of ASVFP will comply with the terms of technical specifications. Certain criteria in order to minimize the amount of risk the developer and the customer wish is useful for a trial ready prototypes of ASVFP. The substantiation of the reach ability required system performance as a whole, as well as the necessary quality of its functioning, provides this efficiency. Calculate risk for customer and the developer are important from the point of view of system analysis and provide confidence in the accuracy of ASVFP achieved with an estimate of the number. To take account the requirements of the developer and the customer must indicate in the specifications, two probabilities of successful operation of ASVFP: the smallest value of the probability of success for customer; the greatest value of the probability of success, wish should be configured on the production created ASVFP. Criteria of this type are used in testing of finished tested ASVFP. One of the most important schemes of formation of these criteria is obtained by the author in considering experiment as a process of testing statistical hypotheses. This approach allows to optimize the methods of experiment of ASVFP developed at the final stage - testing of ready ASVFP. The method allows to evaluate the quality (successful) of the solution of the problem posed to the testing ASVFP; improve the quality of experiment; decide objectively on the possibility of entering the test system in operation.

Key words: , , , , , , the automated systems, quality of functioning, the technical project, efficiency, probability of successful work, method