CASPIAN JOURNAL
MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
The methodology for linguistic risk assessment of emergency situations for the process of producing elemental sulphur by the Claus
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Read | Pechenkin D.V., Bespalova Ye.V. The methodology for linguistic risk assessment of emergency situations for the process of producing elemental sulphur by the Claus // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2016. — №4. — pp. 33-42. |
Pechenkin D.V. - post-graduate student, Astrakhan State Technical University, 16 Tatishchev St., Astrakhan, 414056, Russian Federation, pechenkin1@gmail.com
Bespalova Ye.V. - Ph.D. (Engineering), Associate Professor, Astrakhan State Technical University, 16 Tatishchev St., Astrakhan, 414056, Russian Federation
The real-time control of technological processes is subject to the risks associated with not only equipment failures, but also inaccurate or untimely assessments pre-emergency or emergency situations from the human operator. For definiteness, in this article consideration of the material focus on the process of obtaining elemental sulfur by the Claus method. Such a process is using, in particular, in the Astrakhan gas condensate complex. The authors substantiate the expediency of application of fuzzy logic for risk assessment of technological processes, the management of these risks. It is shown that among the factors influencing these processes and the quality of decision making by the human operator, includes the following: the time needed to select the optimal control action under specific conditions (situations); in fact, the time available for decision-making; psychological and physical (physiological) features of the human operator, the totality of his knowledge and skills that define the qualification; technological features of a managed process. Application of fuzzy models allows to take into account both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the managed objects and to represent fuzzy description using fuzzy sets and linguistic variables. The article highlights the main groups of influencing factors, the growth process parameters, as well as the performance of the human operator with the technical subsystem included in the human-machine system automated control. Built base of fuzzy production rules to determine (assess) the risk of accidents processes, given the current sample. Keywords
Key words: технологический процесс, управление в реальном времени, человеко-машинные системы управления, получение серы, метод Клауса, Астраханская область, анализ рисков аварий, экспертный опрос, нечеткая логика, нечеткая модель, продукционные правила, системный ан