CASPIAN JOURNAL
MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
Parametric approach to assess the state of complex technical objects on the basis of evolution equation
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Read | Kochnev S.V., Lapsar A.P. Parametric approach to assess the state of complex technical objects on the basis of evolution equation // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2017. — №2. — pp. 10-18. |
Kochnev S.V. - head of department, State Research Institute of Instrument Making, 125 Mir Ave., Moscow, 129226, Russian Federation, s.v.ko@mail.ru
Lapsar A.P. - Associate Professor, Deputy Chief of Department, Administration of FSTEC of Russia by South and North Caucasian Federal Districts, 1e/25 Yaroslav Galan St., Rostov-on-Don, 344079, Russian Federation, lapsar1958@mail.ru
The existing system of ensuring operability of complex technical objects based on the system of scheduled preventive servicing and repair is costly and insufficiently effective, and it cannot successfully function in the conditions of emergency operation. Therefore, development of the perspective feed-forward control systems providing operational assessment of a status and receipt of aprioristic information on behavior of an object of control in the future is urgent. Research objective is to develop a method of operational assessment of a condition of complex technical objects for synthesis of the control systems, which are effectively functioning in the conditions of emergency operation. The evaluation method of a condition of objects that is based on diffusive Markov models and the solution of the evolutionary equations in a parametrical type is used. The approach, allowing to compensate imperfection of the mathematical device of the solution of the diffusive equations and big computing difficulties is offered. The analysis of the main operational characteristics of complex technical objects and methods of their assessment is carried out, the model of assessment of a condition of objects in the form of the parametrized evolutionary equations is synthesized. The method of the solution of such equations and obtain of stochastic characteristics of the studied object in real time is offered. The offered parametrical approach allows to lower time of assessment of a condition of objects considerably and provides rather high precision. In normal conditions of operation it forms a basis for transition to servicing in real situation, in emergency conditions - allows to increase the level of readiness of objects for proper use and safety of their operation.
Key words: технический объект, параметрическая оценка, марковские модели, эволюционные уравнения, плотность вероятности, стохастические характеристики, система контроля, нештатная эксплуатация, technical object, parametrical assessment, Markov models, evolutionary e