CASPIAN JOURNAL

MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES

MODELING OF COMPLEX (DANGEROUS) NATURAL PROCESSES BY MEANS OF THE BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK

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Taran Viktoriya N. MODELING OF COMPLEX (DANGEROUS) NATURAL PROCESSES BY MEANS OF THE BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2019. — №2. — pp. 90-100.

Taran Viktoriya N. - Cand. Sci. (Engineering), ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-0178, Humanities and Education Science Academy (branch) of V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University in Yalta, victoriya_yalta@ukr.net

The article analyzes the factors that have an impact on the activation of complex natural processes and their cata-strophic consequences. Solar activity, precipitation and seismic activity have chosen as the most significant factors, a sharp increase in which leads to activation of natural processes such as landslides, mudflows, natural and forest fires, snow ava-lanches, hurricanes, tornados, squalls, volcanic eruptions, etc. Intermediate and resulting indicators have chosen to describe and evaluate the course of the processes under consideration: Natural Hazards, Time Frame and Cash. The construction of the Bayesian belief network for modeling of complex natural processes on the Northern Mountainous Coast of Black Sea, its structure and training by filling in probability tables are considered. Experts fill conditional probabilities for dependent or intermediate vertices. The values of unconditional probabilities have filled according to observation data for top-level vertices. The managing or controlling factor is determined as Funds Invested and its importance has discussed. Simulation of various scenarios of the course of natural processes has carried out, for which the probability of occurrence of certain states of the resulting outcome indicators is calculated.

Key words: моделирование, прогнозирование, сложные системы, катастрофические последствия сложных природных процессов, оползневые процессы, сети доверия Байеса, modeling, forecasting, complex systems, catastrophic consequences of complex natural processes, landslide