CASPIAN JOURNAL
MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
Forecasting method of main efficiency indicatorsof project construction the main oil pipeline
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Read | Bosenko Vladimir N., Kravets Alla G. Forecasting method of main efficiency indicatorsof project construction the main oil pipeline // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2013. — №2. — pp. 139-146. |
Bosenko Vladimir N. - post-graduate student, Volgograd State Technical University, 28 Lenin av., Volgograd, 400005, Russian Federation, bosenko.vladimir@mail.ru
Kravets Alla G. - D.Sc. (Engineering), Professor, Volgograd State Technical University, 28 Lenin av., Volgograd, 400005, Russian Federation, agk@gde.ru
The article is devoted to the description of the main indicators forecasting method of the main oil pipeline site construction. Previously analyzed the technical and economic performance of the construction companies working in the construction and maintenance of pipelines, and the basic. Analysis existing methods of forecasting also was made. Further investigate the features of group method data for use in the construction the oil pipeline. Adaptation of algorithm of GMDH taking into account features of forecasting of construction of the main oil pipeline is made. Introduced an additional criterion to the quality and quantity of information on the process of construction. For check of operability of the received algorithm and reliability of information calculation with basic data of supervision on construction of the main oil pipeline was carried out. At check algorithm works on selection of data got model for calculation of productivity of construction of the oil pipeline. This model depends on the set input parameters and allows to make forecasts by means of a variation of entrance indicators.
Key words: method,forecasting,analysis,indicator,efficiency,construction,main oil pipeline,GMDH,additional criterion,calculation method