CASPIAN JOURNAL

MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES

Theoretical and experimental forecasting model of professional suitability of employees of extreme professions

Read Shutkin A.N. Theoretical and experimental forecasting model of professional suitability of employees of extreme professions // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2017. — №3. — pp. 36-45.

Shutkin A.N. - Cand. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Associate Professor, Southwest State University, 19 B Chelyuskintsev St., Kursk, 305004, Russian Federation, anshutkin@mail.ru

The paper presents the model of formation of functional systems and evaluation of adaptive capacity for intellectual systems of forecasting professional suitability of employees of extreme professions. Using of algorithm of formation of the functional systems, a feature of which is the sequential switch of the configuration of the neural network structure, which generates functional systems, from expert estimation to training sample and vice versa, is justified. It is shown that adaptive capacity is determined by its potential ability to rebuild the functional systems. The ability itself depends on the capability to manage the process of rebuilding the system (innate qualities) and the presence of resources in the systems of the body (history). To determine the parameters of the model there is multi-phase experiment, which is proposed; it is based on initiating transition processes in the functional systems of the body using functional tests or stimuli with dynamically varying parameters. On the basis of statistical analysis of results of a three-phase experiment linear models of adaptation capabilities have been obtained. There has been conducted experimental research confirming the adequacy of the models.

Key words: функциональная система, адаптация, модель, нейронная сеть, алгоритм, трехфазный эксперимент, функциональная проба, профессиональная пригодность, компьютерное моделирование, интеллектуальное прогнозирование, functional system, adaptation, model, neural net