CASPIAN JOURNAL
MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
MODELFOR PREDICTING THE CONSEQUENCES OF AN ACCIDENT WITH THE RELEASE OF CHEMICALLY HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT REGULAR AIR POLLUTION BY AUTOTRANSPORT
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Read | Tsvirkun Anatolij D., Kusheleva Ekaterina V., Rezchikov Alexander F., Kushnikova Elena V., Ivashhenko Vladimir A., Kushnikov Vadim A. MODELFOR PREDICTING THE CONSEQUENCES OF AN ACCIDENT WITH THE RELEASE OF CHEMICALLY HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT REGULAR AIR POLLUTION BY AUTOTRANSPORT // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2019. — №1. — pp. 137-154. |
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Tsvirkun Anatolij D. - Doct. Sci. (Engineering), Professor, Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 65 Profsoyuznaya St., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation, tsvirkun@ipu.ru
Kusheleva Ekaterina V. - post-graduate student, Saratov State University, 83 Astrakhanskaya St., Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation, kushelevae@mail.ru
Rezchikov Alexander F. - Doct. Sci. (Engineering), Professor, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 65 Profsoyuznaya St., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation, iptmuran@san.ru
Kushnikova Elena V. - Cand. Sci. (Engineering), Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, 77 Politechnicheskaya St., Saratov, Russian Federation, 410054, lkushnikova@gmail.com
Ivashhenko Vladimir A. - Doct. Sci. (Engineering), Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 65 Profsoyuznaya St., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation, iptmuran@san.ru
Kushnikov Vadim A. - Doct. Sci. (Engineering), Professor, Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 65 Profsoyuznaya St., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation, kushnikoff@yandex.ru
With the growth of industrial production increases the likelihood of man-made accidents associated with uncontrolled emissions of chemically hazardous substances into the environment. This necessitates the prediction of the possible effects of chemical contamination. Since a significant number of industrial facilities are located within the city limits, when assessing the effects of such emissions, it is necessary to take into account the already existing level of contamination of urban areas with harmful chemicals and compounds. They can be formed, for example, during the operation of a vehicle. All this makes the development of mathematical software for environmental monitoring and monitoring systems relevant, which makes it possible to predict the effects of emissions of chemically hazardous substances into the atmosphere, taking into account the regular pollution of urban air by road transport. The purpose of the article is to develop a mathematical model that allows for various time intervals, taking into account the parameters of the environment and non-linear relationships between the predicted variables, to quantify the effects of emissions of chemically dangerous substances into the atmosphere. Methods used: on the basis of the mathematical apparatus of system dynamics, a system of nonlinear differential equations was constructed to describe the object under study, the numerical solution of which was performed using the 4th order Runge - Kutta method. The scientific novelty of the article is connected with the development of an integrated mathematical model for predicting the main characteristics of emissions of chemically hazardous substances, taking into account the existing air pollution near highways. The adequacy of the model was tested by comparing the calculated values of the simulated characteristics with experimental data. The average value of the relative errors in the modeling nodes for each characteristic does not exceed 13 %, which confirms the adequacy of the model. The developed software can be used for upgrading information systems for predicting the effects of emissions of chemically hazardous substances, as well as in simulator systems for training the operational dispatching personnel of the Emergencies Ministry.
Key words: городская среда, химически опасные вещества, выбросы в атмосферу, распространение в атмосфере, последствия выбросов, загрязнение воздуха автотранспортом, здоровье населения, математическое моделирование, система дифференциальных уравнений, urban environme