Read Bondareva Irina O., Khanova Anna A. MULTI-LEVEL MANAGEMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF MODELING AND CASCADING // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2021. — №4. — pp. 18-26.

Bondareva Irina O. - Astrakhan State Technical University

Khanova Anna A. - Astrakhan State Technical University

A conceptual solution is presented that allows for managing the risks of an organizational system (for example, a cargo port) at three levels of management: strategic, tactical and operational. A step-by-step mechanism for the integrated use of risk cascading and Logical-Probabilistic modeling is proposed for the purpose of a detailed and multilateral description of cause-and-effect relationships, as well as simulation modeling as a tool for analyzing, assessing and predicting the occurrence of risk situations. The described mechanism is clearly displayed in the form of a structural diagram of multilevel risk management. The method of cascading risks at the strategic, tactical and operational levels of management is described in detail, each of which considers as a risk situation the failure to achieve the goals of the organizational system, the failure of the indicators to assess the implementation of the goal of the normative values and the failure of the detailed indicators to assess the implementation of the goals of the normative values, respectively. The main goals of the organizational system - the cargo port, are indicated, supplemented by indicators for assessing their achievement, as well as criteria for detailing each of the proposed assessment indicators. A cascade logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port is presented, detailing the scenarios of the first level of goal-setting and including all three levels of management. The logical and probabilistic models of various levels of management are formulated and described, the identified basic regularities are explained. The mechanism of fixing the onset of risk situations at the operational level using cascading technologies and simulation modeling, identifying cause-and-effect relationships using logical-probabilistic modeling, as well as formulating recommendations to prevent the onset of risk situations in future periods is described in detail, i.e. at the tactical and operational levels of management. The developed mechanism is essentially a planning tool at various levels of government.

Key words: cascading risks, logical-probabilistic modeling, simulation modeling, multilevel management, organizational systems