CASPIAN JOURNAL
MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
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Read | Solopov Vyacheslav Yu., Koshkarov Alexandr V. // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2012. — №1. — pp. 57-66. |
Solopov Vyacheslav Yu. - Doctor of Economic Sciences, Vice Rector for Academic Affairs and innovative learning technologies, Astrakhan State University, 20a Tatishchev str., Astrakhan, 414056, Russia, solopov@aspu.ru
Koshkarov Alexandr V. - Post-graduate student, Astrakhan State University, 20a Tatishchev str., Astrakhan, 414056, Russia, avkoshkarov@gmail.com
The effectiveness of management processes of economic dynamics in the region often depends on the application of forecasting models. On the basic of reasonable forecast, the goals of the socio-economic development of the region are identified, the program activities and priorities in the development of regional economic complex are specified. Application of models of socio-economic dynamics is especially approved when there is no statistical data necessary for modeling and forecasting of processes of economic dynamics in the region, or when the statistics is distorted. There is a need to develop automated tools to support management decision-making at the regional level by constructing a forecasting model of selected processes of socio-economic dynamics on which could be refined and improved program activities, points of the strategy development of the territory, would be carried out "imitation" of the proposed economic reforms, etc. It is proposed to use the method of situation (simulation) modeling in combination with other methods (method of extrapolation, expert judgment, etc.) as a method of modeling and forecasting, because in some cases, none of which can not provide the required level of reliability and accuracy of prediction but, they are very effective used in certain combinations.
Key words: the support system for management decision-making,modeling of economic dynamics,regional economic dynamics,forecasting,regional economy