CASPIAN JOURNAL
MANAGEMENT AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES
Use of information and communication technologies for analysis, forecast and management of demographic situation and migration processes in the region (for example - in Volgograd region)
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Read | Lapina Marina S., Salnikova Nataliya A., Astafurova Olga A., Lopukhov Nikolay V. Use of information and communication technologies for analysis, forecast and management of demographic situation and migration processes in the region (for example - in Volgograd region) // Caspian journal : management and high technologies. — 2014. — №4. — pp. 51-64. |
Lapina Marina S. - post-graduate student, Volgograd State University, 100 Universitetskiy Avenue, Volgograd, 400062, Russian Federation, mary222@mail.ru
Salnikova Nataliya A. - Ph.D. (Engineering), Volgograd Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 8 Gagarin St., Volgograd, 400131, Russian Federation, ns3112@mail.ru
Astafurova Olga A. - Ph.D. (Engineering), Volgograd Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 8 Gagarin St., Volgograd, 400131, Russian Federation, olgast@vags.ru
Lopukhov Nikolay V. - Ph.D. (Physics and Mathematical Sciences), Volgograd Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 8 Gagarin St., Volgograd, 400131, Russian Federation, lopuhov_nikolai@mail.ru
In the article relevance of the theme from a position of strengthening of migratory processes in Russia and the becoming more active migration policy of the Russian Federation is proved. Particular attention is paid to the use of information and communication technologies for information analysis, management of demographic and migration processes. The main subject of this work is the numerical, statistical, economic and mathematical methods for studying demographic processes in the Volgograd region. The purpose of this study is to analyze and forecast the dynamics of the able-bodied citizens with the migration processes in the Volgograd region. Methodological and theoretical base for the study were the works of Russian and foreign scientists devoted to analysis and prediction of the size and composition of the population, to statistics, econometrics and computer data processing, as well as to methodological developments and recommendations of the Federal Service of the non-state statistics of the Russian Federation and the Territorial Authority of Federal State Statistics Service in the Volgograd region. Methods: economic and mathematical methods aiiowing to develop multivariate dynamic models. An analytical survey of the current demographic situation in the Volgograd region was carried out. The analysis and the forecast of the real dynamics of the working population, taking into account internal and external migration were impiemented.
Key words: демографические процессы, миграционные процессы, демографическая политика, внешняя и внутренняя миграция, управление трудовыми потоками, социально-экономическое развитие, информационно-коммуникационные технологии, Волгоградская область, demographic proces